RE: North and South: The Statistical Truth

["Thorpe, John" <thorpj@caepo1.columbiaSC.NCR.COM>]

Poster: "Thorpe, John" <thorpj@caepo1.columbiaSC.NCR.COM>


Greetings from Eldred, Powderkeg Pursuivant, and Neutral Minion(TM)!

     His Excellency has many more facts than I do, so I must
yield....with a reminder to all that I am NOT upset by the north/south
debate, nor do I perceive an injustice.  I am playing devil's advocate,
and losing marvelously!

Scripsit Dafydd ap Statistics:

>I'll find the data for Kingdom events since 1992 and give it to you.  But
>you won't find any massive injustice.  For example, I can tell you exactly
>which two 12th Nights since 1984 were held in the North.  One was in
>Lochmere eight years ago, and one was in Dun Carraig three years ago.  Not
>exactly a trend of abuse that would create a hue and cry.  A week after
>the Dun Carraig 12th Night there was a Southern 12th Night in Hidden
>Mountain (which I attended, incidentally).

And even though I live in the south, I did not go to it--so, nyah. 8^P
I've never been to a 12th Night, except for the Southern 12th Night
in Cydllain Downs this past January.  Obviously, I must not have
a grievance with where 12th Night is held if I never go.  Or else
I'm REALLY PO'ed 'cause I can never get to one.  In reality,
I don't really care one way or another.  I would like to eventually
go to a 12th Night, just to experience one.  I would also like to
go to Pennsic once, but I never will.  What's the difference?

>> [....]  Those who have been in for less than three years may
>> perceive that more events have been held in the north (or the
>> south) since they joined.

>Exactly.  We are not dealing with facts, we are dealing with perception.
>And the way we should deal with someone who says "gee, all the Kingdom
>events are always far away" is that we should respond "I'm sorry you
>weren't able to make it to an event you wanted to attend, but that just
>isn't true."

So, what if someone says, "gee, most Kingdom events are far away" or
"It takes so long to get to most Kingdom events?"  Distance may be a factor
but a larger one is the time it takes to get there!  I don't think it is a 
question
of "all" but of "a large number of".

Let's see.  In the last 6 years, I've been to 3 Crown Tourneys,
1 Coronation and 0 of the other "Kingdom level" events.  So
realistically, there've been only 4 Kingdom events I could
get to reasonably within the last 6 years.  Am I upset?  No,
not really.  Am I whining?  No, at least I don't think so.  Of course,
no one wants to go to Unevent--it's a working event, and work is
not fun. 8^)  I still think you need to add the other Kingdom events
into this such as Emerald Joust, University, but I'll let it lie for now.

>You say that there is a hue and cry, and I read from some earlier notes of
>others that there is a perception of injustice.  Frankly, you are correct.
>There is significant injustice being done, the opposite of what you think.

>The North has more than four times the SCA population of the South, so we
>should have four times as many Kingdom events.  We are only getting the
>same number of Kingdom events.  That is clearly unfair and unjust --
>Southerners get four times the Kingdom events per capita that us
>Northerners do.  Until this discrepancy is resolved, I propose that the
>South get no more Kingdom events.  Given 2 Kingdom events in the Central
>region for every Northern one, and another 22 Northern Kingdom events
>necessary before this injustice is made right, I expect that this solution
>will result in the next Southern Kingdom event being in the year ... 2019.

>Of course I am not serious.  However, I am finding it hard to avoid
>poking fun.

Duh.   8^)  But your point is well taken.  The injustice _is_ perceived.
I'm still trying to ferret out WHY.  BTW, is the 4:1 ratio correct?  Are
you looking at just the paid members or are you looking at paid
members plus people who show up regularly?  I know from some
recent research how many people are paid up in Nottinghill Coill
and I know that there are quite a few "regulars" in addition to that
number.  But when you consider how many baronies are in the
DC area, I'd say you aren't too far off.

[snip..]

>And DON'T GET ME STARTED on holding Universities in the South.

Too late... 8^)

[snip...]

>the last University
>held in the South had very poor attendance from the South.  Only about 25%
>of the attendees were from the region.  Yes, I can prove this--Elizabeth
>can run off University attendance statistics.

Just as a yardstick, what are the regional ratios for the last few years?
The last "Southern" University I remember was in Hidden Mountain
well over two years ago.  How many people showed up in total?  Does
the total reflect the ratio of the kingdom populace?

>I consider this a major problem.  University is one of our best events.
>There are some strong supporters of University in the South: Baron Corwyn
>and Baroness Deirdre have taken more courses than just about anyone.  But
>there seems to be a significant lack of interest in University in the
>general populace down South, and I find that distressing.

>If anyone has any ideas on how to increase the interest in the University
>of Atlantia in the South, I (and, I'm sure, the Chancellor, Mistress
>Deirdre) would love to hear them.

Hey!  I went to the one in Hidden Mountain, and I went to the last one.
Don't make it sound like no one in the south is interested.  I know
several people in the south who attend University on a semi-regular
basis, both to teach and to learn.  As far as what it would take to
increase interest in the south....  I'm not sure how to address that.
>From the Hidden Mountain University, I seem to recall instructors
not showing up, and that there were few courses that interested
me outside of the heraldry track at that one.

I know getting volunteers for courses is tough.  However, (correct me if I
am wrong, please) aren't volunteers to teach courses asked for moreso
than a general "what courses would you be interested in seeing," then
getting instructors for those courses?  I can only remember pleas for
people to teach a "generic" track or "would someone like to teach
at University?"  Of course, my memory isn't always great on such points.

IF you want me to show you my opinion, I'd love to go to a class on
making stained glass.  I'd also like to go to a class on constructing
and decorating (simple) portable buildings (hint, hint).  I notice that
the calligraphy and illumination classes are usually full, and I like to
go to those.  Classes where I can create something useful to my
persona to take to an event is something I'd be interested in, but
that's mighty generic.  I'd also love for University to be less than 3
hours away from me.  8^)

I do have a suggestion for increasing southern attendance at
southern and south central universities:  get input on what people
would like to have taught at those universities and get the instructors
to come to those.  For instance, if I'd like to go to a class on stained
glass, and it gets offered at a Storvik university, it doesn't do me
much good, unless I'm willing to travel 10+ hours.  You also need to
work it out that highly popular classes don't get scheduled at the
same time -- or better yet, see who wants to take what classes,
where they are from, and schedule accordingly so as to be most
convenient for the largest number people for that particular site.
A rather nasty scheduling problem, though.

>> Also, I noticed that the 1990 placed
>> Isenfir in the Central region, which skews the results
>> significantly--esp. since most of us in the South STILL
>> consider it to be in the North.

>No, it will have no affect on the statistics at all.  For the placement of
>Isenfir to matter on the statistics of Kingdom Events before 1990, Isenfir
>would have to have hosted such an event.  That didn't happen.  Ergo, no
>effect on the stats.

You missed my point.  Assuming that Isenfir had not become "central"
in 1990, how would those stats be affected?  My thought is that if
Isenfir remained "North" after 1990, that more events would be
classified as "North" as well.

>> [....] When was the last time someone tried
>> driving from DC or even Baltimore down to Greenville (or
>> vice versa--Pointless War readily springs to mind)?  That's
>> a LONG trip!

>Yes, it sure is.  And I've gone to about four Sea Wars events held in SC
>or even GA or FL.  These days the Kingdom is fighting the East at
>Pointless instead of Trimaris at Sea Wars; in the future maybe we'll fight
>Drachenwald, and everyone will whine about driving the 140 hour trip
>underwater.

Depends on what you have to drive with, doesn't it?  8^)  At any rate I
mixed a War in there accidentally.

>>      To further egg this on, let's look at the actual
>> physical location of those Kingdom event sites.  I know
>> that people travel to Charlotte (really King's Mountain)
>> for events.  A Sacred Stone event held at King's Mountain
>> is considered "central".  Actually, it isn't.  King's
>> Mountain is actually in Nottinghill Coill, which is
>> the western 2/3rds of South Carolina.  When Nottinghill
>> Coill holds an event there, it is considered "South".
>> The stats are looking a bit shaky in cases that involve
>> shared sites such as King's Mountain......Do people think
>> in terms of the hosting branch or the physical location?

>Frankly, I consider Charlotte to be the South.  It is the same distance
>from me as some sites in Nottinghill Coill.

To be fair, that's exactly the same logic I apply to Isenfir and sites in
eastern North Carolina.

>However, if we relabel every Kingdom event held in Charlotte as being a
>Southern event (and there have been a bunch of them there!), then we'll
>end up with the numbers being even more skewed, showing that an even more
>vastly disproportionate number of Kingdom events are held in the South.

You are probably quite right, too.  Now, here's where the _perceived_
injustice may be:  who hosted those Kingdom events held at King's
Mountain?  Was it a central branch or a southern branch?  Based on
the definition of Central and Southern, a Central branch is from North
Carolina, and a Southern branch is from South Carolina.

Of course, the south could just be full of whinging SCAdians. 8^)

>Dafydd,
>who is in favour of travel and has made it to two or three events in the
>South every year for the last 15.
^^^^And who can _afford_ to travel.... 8^)

In service,
Eldred
who actually does travel outside of his home barony now and then.
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